Propylene is one of the key building block petrochemicals used as feedstock for a variety of polymers and intermediates. Major propylene derivatives include polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, cumene/phenol, oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, isopropyl alcohol, oligomers and other miscellaneous intermediates used, in turn, in a wide range of end-use applications including automotive, construction, consumer durables and non-durables, packaging and electronics. As shown in Figure 1.1, global propylene demand grew from 16.4 million tons in 1980 to around 30 million tons in 1990, corresponding to an average annual growth of 6.2 percent. In the decade ending in 2000, demand grew at an average rate of 5.7 percent per year, reaching 52 million tons. Demand for propylene will grow at an estimated 5.3 percent annually for the period 2001-2010, to 81 million by 2010. This increase will be driven by the demand for derivatives, especially polypropylene, the demand for which is growing at the rate of 7.3 percent for the same time period. Propylene demand is expected to grow faster than supply. Propylene supply/demand conditions and pricing are strongly dependent on refinery production and the supply/demand balance, operating rates and feedstock slates in the ethylene industry. Globally, more than 25 percent of the new crackers currently planned for start up in the 2003-2006 timeframe are based on ethane, and therefore will produce little propylene. Propylene is produced commercially on purpose by dehydrogenation of propane, but this is an expensive route that generally requires favorable feedstock pricing to be competitive. The amount of propylene produced by propane dehydrogenation is small compared to other sources. Propylene demand will also be affected by new technology developments in propylene derivatives, as well. Although polypropylene will remain the principal propylene derivative and the driver of propylene demand, the following derivative technology developments may also influence propylene demand: potential for acrylonitrile production from propane; the non-coproduct route to propylene oxide; catalytic distillation for cumene/phenol production; the production and product characteristics of non-phosgene based polycarbonate and the effect on its principal raw material, bisphenol-A; and advances in oxo alcohol production technology. Nexant's new report, Technology Developments in Propylene and Propylene Derivatives, examines and compares the process technologies and economics of the commercially available and developing technologies for the production of propylene alone or as a coproduct. The report focuses on the economics of alternate routes to propylene, how they compare to conventional routes, and how competitive they are. These routes include the conventional processes and feedstocks practiced today:
- Conventional steam cracking
- Production and recovery from refinery streams
- Propane dehydrogenation
These conventional propylene technologies are compared to the new and developing
technologies for propylene production. Nexant examines and analyzes newer developments in
alternate technology and feedstock sources, and those technologies that are designed to either
produce propylene exclusively or increase propylene yields from conventional sources:
- Olefin Metathesis
- Catalytic Pyrolysis
- Natural Gas based processes
−Methanol to Olefins (MTO)
−Methanol to Propylene (MTP)
- Olefin Interconversion
In addition to propylene production technology, Nexant analyzes technology developments and cost of production implications in the major propylene derivatives:
- Direct conversion of propylene to propylene oxide
- Non-phosgene routes to polycarbonate
- Propane ammoxidation to acrylonitrile
- Catalytic distillation to cumene/phenol
- Developments in acrylic acid technology
- Developments in oxo alcohol technology
For both the propylene and derivative technologies, Nexant compares the estimated costs of production to those of conventional technology. Economics are developed for worldscale capacities in the major production regions, the U.S., Western Europe, Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and the Middle East. | 
