The polyester resin industry is facing important decisions. Though blessed with high growth rates globally, escalating raw material prices and reduced margins are causing low profitability.
In addition, because of relative ease of entry, new capacity continues to come on-stream, further threatening existing producers. At the same time there have been several important technology and commercial developments, some recent and some yet to emerge, including the emergence of medium quality terephthalic acid, that may change the landscape of the industry. A new report from Nexant, Inc., Squeezing Profitability from the PTA/PET Value Chain: Impact of the Latest Technology Advances, will describe and analyze these developments and forecast the effects of the advances on PET resin demand, plant and producer competitiveness, intermaterial competition, and regional supply/demand and trade dynamics. Major topics to be evaluated include the following:
- MEDIUM QUALITY TEREPHTHALIC ACID
- The features and estimated costs of production of conventional PTA vs. lower cost alternate terephthalic acid technologies
- Uses and limitations of the medium quality material
- Product quality issues and remediation, e.g., color masking, etc.
- Trends in conventional PTA technology, e.g., single-line capacity, materials of construction, raw material yields
- "Step-out" developments in conventional or nonconventional high purity PTA technology that might result in competitive cost reduction, including alternate technology and mega-scale plants
- The effect of major construction in Asia, principally China, on regional and global economic competitiveness
- DEVELOPING PTA MARKETS
- Actual versus promised/claimed performance: the actual performance characteristics of the PTT fiber in carpet and textile applications as compared to claims based on laboratory testing
- Market entry barriers: the level of resistance to acceptance of PTT as a substitute resin from the end-users and actions that will have to be taken to gain more widespread acceptance, such as favorable price setting or mill machinery retrofit or replacement.
- Processability issues - degree (if any) of equipment modification needed to use PTT by fabricators and impact on their choice of resin
- Differential cost to use (fabricate) relative to nylon, PET and PBT
- Overall quality and repeatability on a commercial scale
- Specific benefits gained in retrofitting PET capacity, such as increased market share, increased capacity utilization, etc.
- Conversion issues for retrofit PET producers, such as cost to enter, serve and maintain the business
- PDO and PTT technology barriers and limitations: How do the PTT resin technologies being developed compare? What are the technical features and shortcomings of each?
- Which is more likely to be competitive on a commercial scale? Can existing PET processes be retrofit to PTT production given issues of increased byproduct production?
- How will PTT growth affect the supply and price mechanism for PTA and medium quality TPA?
- NEW PET TECHNOLOGIES
- A review of the latest developments in barrier resins
- A review and comparison of properties of PET blends and copolymers with improved barrier and thermal properties
- Costs to produce these resins
- Comparison of competing materials on a property and cost to produce basis
- Forecast demand and effect on total PET resin demand
- Effect on resin growth on PTA market forecast
- Applicability or limitations of medium quality TPA in these applications
- PET CATALYST DESELECTION
- A comparison of operability issues associated with current antimony oxide and antimony triacetate catalysts and plant remediation practices and additives now in practice
- Operating problems and production limitations and liabilities associated with other current catalyst systems
- Expected product characteristics from alternate catalysts and applicability in major applications
- Cost implications of newer catalysts, both for the catalyst itself (e.g. catalyst cost, productivity, plant throughput, etc.) and product remediation (e.g. need for and use of colorants, plant downtime, etc.)
- IMPROVEMENTS IN ETHYLENE GLYCOL TECHNOLOGY
- Improved oxidation catalysts
- Catalytic hydrolysis of EO
- EG from EO via carbonylation to ethylene carbonate followed by hydrolysis to EG
- Direct ethylene oxidation to EG
- FUNDAMENTALS OF PET COMPETITIVENESS AND BUSINESS STRATEGY
- Severe overcapacity
- Significant expansion in China and other areas (e.g. Iran), especially terephthalic acid, which may change the regional competitiveness in Asia
- Larger, more efficient plant design and construction
- Short-term high-prices of raw materials, e.g. Asia short in para-xylene, the key feedstock for PTA, and its effect on pricing
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